LONDON, Oct 10 (Reuter) - Only three of the 20 teams involved in rugby union's European Cup have no chance of qualifying for the knock-out stages in the final round of pool matches this weekend.
Six weeks of blood, sweat and toil across Europe have left Toulouse and the English trio of Wasps, Bath and Harlequins as front-runners for a guaranteed home draw in the quarter-finals next month if they win their last pool games, but below them the scramble for places is still intense.
The five second-placed teams in their respective pools, as well as the third-placed team with the best record, will qualify for the newly-introduced play-offs in three weeks' time to determine the three sides who will join the five pool winners in the last eight.
Reaching that point, however, is likely to require some lengthy clubhouse calculations this weekend.
Bourgoin, for example, go to Cardiff knowing they have to win by a margin of at least 28 points to sneak into second place in the pool. Defending champions Brive should, in theory, win comfortably on Sunday against Scottish Borders, who have lost all five of their previous games, but will be glued to events at Bath 24 hours earlier when Pontypridd will be the visitors.
If they win, there is a strong possibility that Pontypridd will go through to the play-offs as the best third-placed side, a scenario which, ironically, could earn them a return trip to Brive where they were involved in an ugly bar-room brawl last month.
Both sides have a suspended 15,000 pounds ($24,300) fine hanging over them -- Pontypridd have appealed for a reduction -- and there was no trouble when the French side travelled to Wales for the reverse fixture. A knock-out encounter in front of an emotional French crowd, though, would test the resolve of everyone concerned.
Brive's French international kicker Christophe Lamaison, who startled British journalists in the now infamous Le Bar Toulzac late last Sunday by smashing a glass in a demonstration of what had happened during the Pontypridd fight, is among many clearly finding it difficult to forgive and forget.
He also insists that Brive are in no mood to give up their title. ``It is our intention to keep the trophy,'' he said. ``At the moment it is ours and it is up to other teams in Europe to take it from us.''
The most complicated mathematics are likely to be found in pool E where Pau, Llanelli, Treviso and Caledonia could all finish on the same number of points.
Points difference would then decide the placings, with Pau currently ahead of the rest. But the French side still have to deal with the visit of Treviso, and the Italians' captain Alessandro Troncon is upbeat. ``We are playing really well and definitely should have beaten Pau when we met last month. It's not over yet.''
($ - 0.615 British Pounds)
Copyright © 1997 Reuters Limited. All rights
reserved. Republication or redistribution of Reuters content is
expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of
Reuters. Reuters shall not be liable for any errors or delays in
the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon